Changes in gastric cancer mortality in Peru before, during, and after the pandemic: a national interrupted time series analysisn
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.47892/rgp.2025.454.2029Keywords:
Stomach Neoplasm, Mortality, COVID-19, Time Series Studies, Health Services AccessibilityAbstract
Introduction: The diagnosis and treatment of gastric cancer may have been affected during the COVID-19 pandemic, ultimately influencing mortality from this disease. Objective: To evaluate changes in gastric cancer mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic years. Materials and methods: An interrupted time series analysis was conducted to assess changes in gastric cancer mortality. Data were obtained from the National Death Information System. Three periods were compared: pre-pandemic (2017–2019), pandemic (2020–2021), and post-pandemic (2022–2023). Segmented regression models were used. Results: Before the pandemic, an average of 2,107 deaths per year was recorded. During 2020 and 2021, mortality increased by 39% and 118%, respectively. The highest peaks occurred between April and July 2020. An additional rise was observed during the early months of 2021. Although mortality progressively declined in 2023, pre-pandemic levels were not restored. The analysis showed that observed deaths consistently exceeded expected projections through late 2022. Conclusions: The COVID-19 pandemic generated a temporary but significant increase in gastric cancer–related mortality in Peru.
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Copyright (c) 2025 Harold Benites-Goñi, Carlos A. Huayanay-Espinoza, Alvaro G. Oviedo-Rios, Rodrigo Motta, Victor Castro, Luis Huicho
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